This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on January 24, 2022 - January 30, 2022

Navigating a river of uncertainties and extremes

As a fun respite from investment research, we hope you enjoy this tongue-in-cheek feng shui guide and welcome you to the Year of the Water Tiger. Courageous, decisive and confident, the Tiger is a trailblazer.

Located in China is the famous Tiger Leaping Gorge, part of the Three Parallel Rivers of Yunnan and a World Heritage site. According to legend, a tiger once leapt from the north to the south, crossing the upper reaches of the Yangtze River by landing on a rock in the middle of the torrents, turning backwards, and then continuing on to the south bank. It is not a far stretch to imagine ourselves looking through Tiger’s eyes.

In our annual guide, we combine the mysterious workings of earthly forces and heavenly bodies to predict the relative movements of the Hang Seng Index, general sector performance and even dispense advice on real estate. Our alternative forecast methodology is based on the interplay of the bazi, or destiny chart, with the Nov 24, 1969, launch date of the HSI — our favourite Earth Rooster. Using a monthly fortune scale, we chart the index’s pattern, direction and relative size. To divine the murky future by industry, we use the five elements theory while the flying stars dictate what we preach on property.

The Hang Seng’s year pillar is earth, but it is almost completely absorbed by the water and wood from Tiger’s presence. Not much fire or metal means there is a lack of balance. The Tiger is not unbalanced when crossing the river, but he continuously turns his head, so prepare yourself for sudden changes. Our Earth Rooster’s lucky elements are fire and wood, so wood’s abundance in the water tiger chart bodes well for Hong Kong’s market. However, metal’s strength in the Hang Seng birth chart will work against it. We thus expect a postsummer lack of enthusiasm and a drop, before picking up towards year’s end. It is worth noting that water’s strength in the chart is yang, not yin; we are looking at oceans and larger rivers ­— possibly extreme flooding. While water usually represents money, this year some of it may just stand for the wet stuff.

After some delays, water-related industries, which include trade, shipping and travel, will finally get flowing again. The best times include the first two months of spring and from mid-autumn through winter. However, financials and batteries will be pressured, perhaps due to tightening liquidity or rising materials prices. Fire is also lacking, so expect internet and tech to lose some shine. On the other hand, wood-related sectors, such as education, clothing and healthcare, may be freed from some of their constraints.

Turning to property, the best direction this year is Northeast, followed by North, South and Southeast. Avoid the Centre, where everything crumbles and the earth retakes all. Be respectful of this year’s Tai Sui, which resides in the Northeast again, and the corresponding Year Breaker sitting in the opposite Southwest direction.

While the Tiger has an average year, he gets delayed on the rock over the summer months. Meanwhile, the Horse is already on the other bank and trotting up the hillside. Along with the Horse, the Rabbit, Goat and Pig also have their eyes firmly on the future. Everyone else is having a reasonable year with the Tiger, except for the Dragon and Dog. These two animals seem to have fallen into the water and are going to need a life raft, a good hot cuppa and possibly a Hong Kong Flying Tigers type of rescue.

Elementary analysis

Somewhere in the clouds above revolve the qi of the five phases. Down here in our world, these phases manifest as concrete structures and a correct understanding of how they function tells us what they are likely to do on our earthly domain. We thus present the overall picture for industries associated with each of the phases across the year. Modified slightly by the ruling forces in each month, the decline of one element may be tempered by the position of a seemingly unrelated element and vice versa. Water, for instance, conquers fire but this can be mitigated by having a surplus of wood, which can augment the fire. And so the dance goes on.

Wood: Wood is well-aspected in the bazi chart, and the Earth Rooster should be feeding it some choice compost. Sectors that have had some headwinds recently, such as education, clothing and even small stationery shops, should find themselves freed from some of those constraints. Early in the year, once the Lantern Festival comes to a close, should be the best time for these endeavours.

Fire: Like metal, fire is also missing from the bazi this year. A small amount of yang fire circles underneath, but it is barely enough to light a fire. There is no shortage of wood for fuel, however, and there is some earth to quench some water, bringing a little warmth to a miserable year for everything from factories and advertising down to consumables such as lighting and fashion. Late spring to early summer looks to be the best period for those industries.

Earth: Some residual weakness is evident in earth-related industries. The construction sectors might find demand and materials lacking at different times. Industries related to earth, but outside those sectors, promise an easier run, so particular small industries such as gemstones and leather should do well. A slow start and a slowdown towards the year end should not hide steady opportunities through the rest of the year.

Metal: Metal is entirely absent from the bazi this year, so you can forgive yourself for feeling like there is no solid ground beneath you if you are following the financial markets for the next 12 months. There is a short period after summer when metal-associated stocks might perform decently, particularly from October, but any brilliance is more a case of a rising tide lifting all boats than sunlight falling on a sharpened metal blade.

Water: Water is the star of the year, especially in the first two months of spring and then from the middle of autumn through the winter. Trade and shipping should pick up, holding steady over the summer before once again pushing higher as the heat dissipates. Travel resumes in earnest in much of the world, so expect judiciously selected associated industries to do well — everything from frozen meat to circuses.

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