Lessons from penalty shootouts
09 Jul 2012, 06:30 pm
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THE recently-concluded Euro 2012 football tournament will be remembered years from now as a historic competition. Yes, Spain won an unprecedented third consecutive major football tournament. But that's not why I would remember it. My fondest memory would be that both finalists got there through the cruel roulette of penalty shootouts.

I love a penalty shootout. It is both simultaneously brutal and beautiful. Unlike the normal flow of a match where the ball is passed with instinctive flicks or kicks, the players taking the penalty kicks have time to think. Their shots are well-considered decisions: should they direct the ball left, right or down the centre?

For Andrea Pirlo, one of the game's best players, his decision was an audacious one — straight down the middle but also skillfully executed as he chipped the ball over the diving Joe Hart.

That penalty changed the momentum of the game, which was then with the English. That one kick summarises all one needs to do to succeed, not just in football, but in life:

1. Have a plan;

2. Bear it with courage (despite naysayers and change resisters); and

3. Execute it with perfection.

And I should add that doing so with grace, like Pirlo, would be a real bonus.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak also used a footballing analogy recently when urging civil servants to be innovative. It is not at all out of place. After all, football is universal in many ways: it can be played by anyone of any shape, size, gender or wealth. And the outcome of any game is also never fully guaranteed. The team that plays better may not necessarily be the winner. Just ask the fans of Bayern Munich, which lost the Champions League in extra time to Manchester United in 1999.

Society seems to like the sport better too. The FIFA World Cup attracts more viewers than the Olympics — 100 million more viewers tuned in to the final match in the South Africa World Cup in 2010 than those who watched the opening ceremony of the Beijing Summer Olympics in 2008.

At Euro 2012, the footballers understood the joy or agony the results would bring to their country. Greek midfielder Kostas Katsouranis “wanted to give everybody back home something to cheer, to celebrate”. Spanish coach Vicente del Bosque similarly felt “if the success can be transferred to society, that would be marvellous”.

In fact, I was in Madrid last month and got a sense of the troubles the Spaniards are facing. With a couple of hours to kill, I ambled along the tree-lined boulevard of Paseo de la Castellana towards Museo el Prado.

Walking back from the Prado, I couldn't help but think of the rise and fall of empires, how a country so rich, with a queen who could fund a band of intrepid explorers to circumnavigate the world, a nation with a global empire stretching from the tip of South America to the Philippines in the Far East up to a century or two ago, is now on the brink of losing it all. As this article goes to press, Europe is deliberating whether Spain (world and European football champions or not), along with several other nations, can remain in the eurozone.

That same evening, I had dinner with Lord Gus O'Donnell, who was the chief secretary to the cabinet under three British prime ministers — Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron. He was there when the UK decided not to join the eurozone, knowing that monetary union before economic integration is flawed.

So, he knows a bit about the euro, and he envisions three potential end-states. Only one of this is positive for Europe. And it is the solution that requires the most painful restructuring. There are no signs that there is appetite to take this path though. In fact, Europe appears to be prepared to numb the pain with a succession of temporary pain-killing solutions.

At the most recent meeting of European leaders — the 19th such summit, by the way — it was decided that Europe's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, may ultimately be employed to recapitalise banks directly rather than via nation-states, which would help to break the vicious cycle binding lenders going bankrupt to indebted governments. This was celebrated as a victory, but in fact, it takes Europe further away from real rehabilitation.

The great strategist Sun Tzu advised generals to set fire to ships behind the battling troops. In certain wars, no way back is the only reason left to inspire the troops to fight for survival. Perhaps with that philosophy in mind, Asian governments undertook fundamental restructuring during the 1997/98 financial crisis and within three to five years, most of our economies were largely back on track. A decade later, a number of companies from these countries, particularly the South Koreans, were challenging to be the world's best. Notably, Malaysian banks, which were hurt the most, have emerged stronger than ever from the ashes of the Asian financial crisis to become regional banks.

I am afraid, however, that unlike Pirlo's nerve in going for it, courage is missing elsewhere in Europe. This means Europe shall muddle through to a slow inevitable decline. Indeed, the world's factories are already running out of steam. Manufacturing output in June expectedly slumped all across Europe and the US (with the Purchasing Managers' Index at 45.1 and 49.7 respectively, five points below the median forecast and way below optimal economies-of-scale production level).

Of greater concern for us here is that production activity also fell in Asia's four largest economies, with China and Japan recording their lowest levels in the year in June, while South Korea and Taiwan contracted for the first time this year.

Looking into the future, South Korea has cut its export growth forecast by half to 3.5%, recognising that there has been a universal dip in new orders that will affect future growth and which may even result in job losses.

But we in Southeast Asia seem to have bucked the trend. Asean economies, notably those of Indonesia and Thailand, have edged up. Our resilience has all to do with having strong domestic demand (especially in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and to an extent, Vietnam), and hence intra-regional demand to buffet the global economic ills — which means we have an exceptional opportunity before us.

The real take-away, though, is: Are you and your organisation prepared for another do-or-die “penalty shootout” moment? Have you anticipated how severe the global economic contraction is going to be, and do you have plans for each of these scenarios?

Can you mobilise your organisation so that the people are ready, willing and able? How will you ensure that the plan gets executed, and should circumstances change, how to get those on the ground to adapt and carry on?

These are questions board members should ask of their chief executives. In fact, these are questions we should ask of all our leaders.

P/S: You know of course that despite Andrea Pirlo's exertions, the Italians lost. They were no match for a Spanish team playing in complete synchronisation with each other. So above all, I should add that unified teamwork ensures victory.

Vincent Chin leads the Boston Consulting Group in Southeast Asia. This story appeared in The Edge on July 9, 2012.

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